Intense Tropical Cyclones and Climate Shifts

Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) occurring in autumn are shifting earlier in the season, with rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This shift is linked to favorable oceanic conditions starting earlier, driven primarily by greenhouse gas forcing. As a result, intense TCs are intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, amplifying their impact. This change highlights the need to understand and prepare for the increasing risk of intense storms.

Shan, K., Lin, Y., Chu, PS. et al. Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate. Nature (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0


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