Second-Best Fairness: The Trade-off between False Positives and False Negatives
In economics, a key question is how to create effective policies when things aren’t perfect. This often means balancing between helping some who may not entirely deserve it (false positives) and not helping others who may deserve it (false negatives). This study, conducted in the United States and Norway through large-scale experiments, reveals that most people prioritize avoiding false negatives over false positives. However, there are significant differences in these preferences between the two countries and across political beliefs. These findings have implications for how social insurance and redistribution policies are shaped.
Cappelen, Alexander W., Cornelius Cappelen, and Bertil Tungodden. 2023. “Second-Best Fairness: The Trade-off between False Positives and False Negatives.” American Economic Review, 113 (9): 2458-85.
